MonitoringHigh impactAI Refreshed

Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz to All Vessels Following US Strikes

Occurred 10 Jun 2026·Detected 16 Jun 2026·
🇮🇷 Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula (Oman/UAE)15 reportsCAT 26AA
MarineEnergy & InfrastructureWar & Armed ConflictPolitical Violence & WarPolitical RiskTrade DisruptionPropertyMarine HullMarine CargoAviationEnergyTerrorism & Political ViolencePolitical RiskWar Risk

Iran's IRGC has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all vessel traffic following US strikes on Iranian targets, with two independent mainstream-media outlets corroborating the closure declaration. One report adds a reported threat to fire on transiting vessels and a reported second strike on the US Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain, while a third reports a >2% intraday jump in crude oil prices. Enforcement scope, duration, naval posture, and US/coalition response remain unconfirmed; no insured loss figure has been reported and the event remains in signal-stage posture.

AI-generated from linked source reports. See our correction policy.

Impact verdict

High impact. Loss pathway: A named, declared closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the waterway carrying roughly 20% of global oil and major LNG flows — directly following US strikes constitutes a concrete maritime and energy disruption with credible spill-over into Marine War, Marine Cargo, Marine Hull, Energy, Political Risk/Political Violence, Aviation War, and downstream treaty exposures. The reported threat to fire on transiting vessels and a reported second strike on the US Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain raise the kinetic risk overlay and support war-risk premium repricing for Persian Gulf transits. Evidence: IRGC announcement reported via independent mainstream-media outlets; a >2% crude price move is an economic-only signal and does not by itself force an insured severity band. Limits: enforcement scope (commercial vs. military), duration, treatment of in-transit traffic, naval posture, and US/coalition response are not yet confirmed; no insured industry loss figure has been reported. The signal warrants elevated war-risk and political-risk vigilance pending confirmation of enforcement and duration.

View assessment methodology

How we grade what we know -- Known · Reported · Uncertain. Methodology →

Intelligence ledger

Each line expands in place to its underlying sourced claim.

AI refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 22:53

Known11 lines

Iran's IRGC announced closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels
structured lineknown
No separate sourced-claim record is available for this line yet.
Closure is in direct response to US military strikes
structured lineknown
No separate sourced-claim record is available for this line yet.
The IRGC closure declaration is presented by reporting outlets as a direct response to US strikes on Iranian targets.
closure_follows_us_strikesescalation contextvalid from 16 Jun 2026, 19:44Political Risk
Market relevance: Contextualises escalation pathway and the prospect of further kinetic exchange
SHBA sulmon Iranin, Teherani mbyll Ngushticën e Hormuzit” — balkanweb.com · 11 Jun 2026, 07:00 · mainstream media
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz” — indiatimes.com · 11 Jun 2026, 03:15 · mainstream media
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint through which approximately 20% of global oil passes, alongside major LNG flows.
strait_hormuz_chokepoint_rolechokepoint exposurevalid from 16 Jun 2026, 19:44Marine Cargo
Market relevance: Frames the size of the marine cargo, marine hull, marine war, and energy loss pathways if the closure is enforced
approximately 20% of global oil passes” — indiatimes.com · 11 Jun 2026, 02:30 · mainstream media
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint through which approximately 20% of global oil passes daily, alongside major LNG flows.
strait_of_hormuz_chokepoint_share_global_oilchokepoint concentrationMarine
Market relevance: Establishes the scale of potential cargo, hull, energy, war and political risk exposure concentrated in a single waterway; supports elevated severity banding if enforcement is sustained.
the world's most critical oil transit chokepoint (~20% of global oil supply)” — indiatimes.com (Economic Times) · 11 Jun 2026, 03:15 · mainstream media
Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint through which approximately 20% of global oil passes” — indiatimes.com (Times of India) · 11 Jun 2026, 02:30 · mainstream media
critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, with approximately 20% of global oil passing through it daily” — webindia123.com · 11 Jun 2026, 02:30 · mainstream media
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint handling approximately 20% of global oil supply.
strait_of_hormuz_global_oil_shareexposure contextMarine
Market relevance: Frames the systemic energy and supply chain impact underpinning marine, energy, and treaty exposures
the world's most critical oil transit chokepoint, handling approximately 20% of global oil supply” — newkerala.com · 11 Jun 2026, 00:45 · mainstream media
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all vessel traffic in direct response to US military strikes on Iranian targets.
irgc_declares_strait_closurewar risk premium repricingvalid from 16 Jun 2026, 19:44Marine War
Market relevance: Directly affects Persian Gulf transit, war-risk premia, and energy supply routing
SHBA sulmon Iranin, Teherani mbyll Ngushticën e Hormuzit” — balkanweb.com · 11 Jun 2026, 07:00 · mainstream media
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz” — indiatimes.com · 11 Jun 2026, 03:15 · mainstream media
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz to all vessels” — indiatimes.com · 11 Jun 2026, 02:30 · mainstream media
No insured industry loss figure has been reported for this event.
no_insured_loss_figureseverity bounded by disruptionvalid from 17 Jun 2026, 10:58Marine War
Market relevance: Severity is bounded by the existence of a credible disruption to named LoBs rather than by any economic or insured loss number
indiatimes.com · 11 Jun 2026, 03:15 · mainstream media
indiatimes.com · 11 Jun 2026, 02:30 · mainstream media
The event is in a signal-stage posture with enforcement scope, duration, and US/coalition response unconfirmed.
event_in_signal_stage_posturelifecycle aware monitoringvalid from 17 Jun 2026, 10:58Marine War
Market relevance: Determines readiness posture for war-risk and political-risk books.
No insured industry loss figure has been reported; severity is bounded by the existence of a credible disruption to named LoBs rather than by oil-price impact alone.
no_insured_loss_figure_reportedseverity undeterminedMarine War
Market relevance: Severity cannot be banded from economic signals alone.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all vessels, in response to reported US military strikes.
irgc_declares_strait_of_hormuz_closed_all_vesselstransit disruptionvalid from 11 Jun 2026, 00:00Marine
Market relevance: Marine hull, marine cargo, marine war, energy and political risk/transit books with Persian Gulf exposure; also relevant to downstream energy treaty and reinsurance accumulations.
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, warns it will shoot vessels; strikes US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain again” — indiatimes.com (Economic Times) · 11 Jun 2026, 03:15 · mainstream media
Crude on boil: Oil prices jump over 2% as Iran closes Strait of Hormuz to all vessels” — indiatimes.com (Times of India) · 11 Jun 2026, 02:30 · mainstream media
Strait of Hormuz 'closed to all vessels,' says Iran's IRGC amid escalating tensions” — webindia123.com · 11 Jun 2026, 02:30 · mainstream media

Reported17 lines

All vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been halted
structured linereported
No separate sourced-claim record is available for this line yet.
The reported closure is framed as retaliation for US military strikes on Iranian targets, though US/coalition action details remain unconfirmed.
closure_retaliation_for_us_strikespolitical risk amplificationvalid from 11 Jun 2026, 07:00Political Risk
Market relevance: Drives escalation path; political risk overlay for Gulf assets and treaty exposures.
SHBA sulmon Iranin, Teherani mbyll Ngushticën e Hormuzit” — balkanweb.com · 11 Jun 2026, 07:00 · mainstream media
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, warns it will shoot vessels; strikes US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain again” — indiatimes.com (Economic Times) · 11 Jun 2026, 03:15 · mainstream media
Iran has reportedly warned it will shoot at vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz during the closure, signalling a kinetic enforcement posture rather than a purely declaratory closure.
irgc_threatens_to_fire_on_transiting_vesselswar risk premium repricingvalid from 11 Jun 2026, 00:00Marine
Market relevance: Raises the likelihood of hull/marine war and crew personal accident claims if enforcement is sustained; supports a higher war-risk premium overlay.
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, warns it will shoot vessels; strikes US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain again” — indiatimes.com (Economic Times) · 11 Jun 2026, 03:15 · mainstream media
The IRGC's closure announcement is framed as retaliation for reported US military strikes on Iranian targets, establishing a direct US–Iran military escalation pathway as the trigger for the maritime disruption.
closure_in_retaliation_for_us_strikespolitical risk escalationvalid from 11 Jun 2026, 00:00Marine
Market relevance: Supports higher political violence / political risk and war risk severity bands for Gulf and adjacent theatres; informs scenario design.
Closure is in direct response to US military strikes” — indiatimes.com (Economic Times) · 11 Jun 2026, 03:15 · mainstream media
amid escalating tensions” — webindia123.com · 11 Jun 2026, 02:30 · mainstream media
No insured industry loss figure has been reported in connection with the Strait of Hormuz closure; the event remains in a signal-stage posture with no quantification of hull, cargo, war, energy or political risk losses at this time.
lifecycle_signal_stage_no_insured_loss_figureno insured loss yetvalid from 16 Jun 2026, 22:04Marine
Market relevance: Confirms that any severity banding at this stage is bounded by the existence of a credible disruption, not by an economic-only oil-price move; severity is contingent on confirmation of enforcement, duration and US response.
Enforcement scope, duration, treatment of vessels already in transit, naval posture, and US/coalition response remain unconfirmed” — indiatimes.com (Economic Times) · 11 Jun 2026, 03:15 · mainstream media
Iran has reportedly struck the US Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain for a second time, raising the regional kinetic overlay and the prospect of further US/coalition military response.
iran_reportedly_struck_us_fifth_fleet_bahrain_second_timepolitical risk escalationvalid from 11 Jun 2026, 00:00Marine
Market relevance: Increases political violence, war and aviation war risk severity for Gulf-based assets and personnel; signals potential wider US/coalition military escalation.
strikes US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain again” — indiatimes.com (Economic Times) · 11 Jun 2026, 03:15 · mainstream media
The announced closure is framed as retaliation for US military strikes.
closure_motivated_by_us_strikesgeopolitical contextvalid from 11 Jun 2026, 00:00Marine
Market relevance: Establishes geopolitical causation driving war risk pricing and treaty assumptions
in retaliation for US military strikes” — newkerala.com · 11 Jun 2026, 00:45 · mainstream media
One mainstream-media report states Iran struck the US Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain for a second time.
reported_second_strike_on_us_fifth_fleet_bahrainwar risk premium repricingvalid from 16 Jun 2026, 22:04Political Violence
Market relevance: Reinforces kinetic escalation in the Gulf and widens war-risk exposure beyond transit lanes to shore-based military/contractor assets
strikes US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain again” — indiatimes.com · 11 Jun 2026, 03:15 · mainstream media
One mainstream-media report states Iran has warned it will fire on vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz.
threat_to_fire_on_transit_vesselswar risk premium repricingvalid from 16 Jun 2026, 22:04Marine War
Market relevance: Materially raises kinetic risk overlay for Persian Gulf transits and war-risk pricing
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, warns it will shoot vessels” — indiatimes.com · 11 Jun 2026, 03:15 · mainstream media
Supersession history: 1 prior/revised claim rows.
Iran is reported to have struck the US Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain for a second time.
second_strike_on_us_fifth_fleet_bahrainwar risk premium repricingvalid from 11 Jun 2026, 03:15Aviation War
Market relevance: Raises kinetic war risk overlay in the Gulf; relevant to aviation war and political violence treaty exposures.
strikes US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain again” — indiatimes.com (Economic Times) · 11 Jun 2026, 03:15 · mainstream media
Iran's IRGC has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all vessel traffic in response to US military strikes on Iranian targets.
irgc_declares_strait_of_hormuz_closurewar risk premium repricingvalid from 11 Jun 2026, 07:00Marine War
Market relevance: Direct chokepoint disruption; ~20% of global oil and major LNG flows transit the strait.
SHBA sulmon Iranin, Teherani mbyll Ngushticën e Hormuzit” — balkanweb.com · 11 Jun 2026, 07:00 · mainstream media
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, warns it will shoot vessels; strikes US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain again” — indiatimes.com (Economic Times) · 11 Jun 2026, 03:15 · mainstream media
Crude on boil: Oil prices jump over 2% as Iran closes Strait of Hormuz to all vessels” — indiatimes.com (Times of India) · 11 Jun 2026, 02:30 · mainstream media
Supersession history: 1 prior/revised claim rows.
One mainstream-media report records crude oil prices jumping more than 2% intraday following news that Iran had closed the Strait of Hormuz.
crude_price_intraday_jumpcommodity price responsevalid from 16 Jun 2026, 19:44Energy
Market relevance: Economic-only signal; supports energy LoB vigilance but does not by itself establish insured severity
Oil prices jump over 2% as Iran closes Strait of Hormuz to all vessels” — indiatimes.com · 11 Jun 2026, 02:30 · mainstream media
Crude oil prices jumped more than 2% intraday following reports of the Strait of Hormuz closure.
crude_oil_price_jump_over_2pctenergy price spike signalvalid from 11 Jun 2026, 02:30Energy
Market relevance: Economic-only price signal; does not by itself force an insured severity band.
Oil prices jump over 2% as Iran closes Strait of Hormuz to all vessels” — indiatimes.com (Times of India) · 11 Jun 2026, 02:30 · mainstream media
Crude oil prices jumped more than 2% intraday following reports that Iran had closed the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels.
crude_oil_price_jump_over_2_percent_on_closure_newsenergy price volatilityvalid from 11 Jun 2026, 00:00Marine
Market relevance: Economic-only signal indicating market stress but does not by itself fix insured severity; relevant context for energy book exposure and downstream treaty accumulations.
Crude on boil: Oil prices jump over 2% as Iran closes Strait of Hormuz to all vessels” — indiatimes.com (Times of India) · 11 Jun 2026, 02:30 · mainstream media
A sustained Strait of Hormuz closure would cascade through global energy supply chains given the waterway's central role in oil and LNG flows.
energy_supply_disruption_cascadesupply disruptionEnergy
Market relevance: Underpins business interruption and political risk considerations for energy insureds
existential threat to global energy supply chains” — newkerala.com · 11 Jun 2026, 00:45 · mainstream media
War risk premiums for Persian Gulf transits are expected to spike in response to a declared IRGC closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
marine_war_risk_premium_repricingpremium repricingMarine
Market relevance: Direct repricing of marine war risk covers and additional premium calls
existential threat to global energy supply chains, marine war risk pricing” — newkerala.com · 11 Jun 2026, 00:45 · mainstream media
All vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been reported as halted.
vessel_traffic_haltedtrigger eventMarine
Market relevance: Direct driver of marine war risk, hull, and cargo exposures
All vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been halted” — newkerala.com · 11 Jun 2026, 00:45 · mainstream media

Uncertain15 lines

Duration of the closure
structured lineuncertain
No separate sourced-claim record is available for this line yet.
Whether all naval forces will enforce the blockade
structured lineuncertain
No separate sourced-claim record is available for this line yet.
Scope of the closure (commercial only or including military)
structured lineuncertain
No separate sourced-claim record is available for this line yet.
US response and potential for further escalation
structured lineuncertain
No separate sourced-claim record is available for this line yet.
Impact on existing vessel traffic in transit
structured lineuncertain
No separate sourced-claim record is available for this line yet.
The scope of the closure (commercial only or including military vessels) remains unconfirmed.
closure_scope_uncertainuncertaintyMarine
Market relevance: Determines breadth of hull/war risk trigger and naval escalation pathways
Scope of the closure (commercial only or including military)” — newkerala.com · 11 Jun 2026, 00:45 · mainstream media
Whether all naval forces will enforce the blockade is unconfirmed.
enforcement_by_naval_forces_uncertainuncertaintyMarine
Market relevance: Determines credibility of disruption and war risk pricing response
Whether all naval forces will enforce the blockade” — newkerala.com · 11 Jun 2026, 00:45 · mainstream media
US response and the potential for further escalation are unknown.
us_response_uncertainuncertaintyMarine
Market relevance: Material to escalation scenarios affecting war risk, treaty, and political risk lines
US response and potential for further escalation” — newkerala.com · 11 Jun 2026, 00:45 · mainstream media
The impact on existing vessel traffic already in transit is unknown.
in_transit_vessel_impact_uncertainuncertaintyMarine
Market relevance: Direct implications for hull and cargo claims exposure in the immediate term
Impact on existing vessel traffic in transit” — newkerala.com · 11 Jun 2026, 00:45 · mainstream media
Duration of the announced Strait of Hormuz closure is unconfirmed across reporting.
closure_duration_uncertainduration uncertaintyMarine War
Market relevance: Duration is a key driver of accumulation versus attritional loss behaviour across marine and energy books
indiatimes.com · 11 Jun 2026, 03:15 · mainstream media
Supersession history: 1 prior/revised claim rows.
It is unconfirmed whether the announced closure will be physically enforced, and if so, against commercial vessels only, all vessels, or specific flag states; whether other naval forces will enforce or contest a blockade is also unconfirmed.
enforcement_scope_uncertainenforcement uncertaintyMarine War
Market relevance: Enforcement reality drives whether war-risk losses crystallise or the event remains a market-pricing signal
indiatimes.com · 11 Jun 2026, 03:15 · mainstream media
Supersession history: 1 prior/revised claim rows.
US and coalition response, including any naval posture changes, freedom-of-navigation operations, or further strikes, is unconfirmed.
us_coalition_response_uncertainresponse uncertaintyPolitical Risk
Market relevance: Coalition response will determine whether the closure escalates into sustained kinetic activity
indiatimes.com · 11 Jun 2026, 03:15 · mainstream media
Supersession history: 1 prior/revised claim rows.
The US and coalition response to the IRGC closure declaration, and the potential for further escalation, has not been confirmed in the available reporting.
us_response_unconfirmeduncertainty on severityMarine
Market relevance: A US/coalition military response would extend war and political violence severity and widen the geographic footprint of marine and aviation war risk exposures.
US response and potential for further escalation” — indiatimes.com (Economic Times) · 11 Jun 2026, 03:15 · mainstream media
It is unconfirmed how vessels already in transit through the Strait of Hormuz at the time of the closure declaration are being treated, and what diversion or safe-passage arrangements, if any, are in place.
impact_on_in_transit_vessels_uncertainuncertainty on severityMarine
Market relevance: Determines immediate hull and cargo exposure for vessels already in the waterway and any associated loss-of-hire and crew personal accident claims.
Impact on existing vessel traffic in transit” — indiatimes.com (Economic Times) · 11 Jun 2026, 03:15 · mainstream media
It is uncertain whether the closure applies to all naval forces or only commercial traffic, and whether in-transit vessels will be affected.
closure_enforcement_scope_uncertainunderwriting uncertaintyMarine War
Market relevance: Scope determines war-risk underwriting and treaty response.
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, warns it will shoot vessels” — indiatimes.com (Economic Times) · 11 Jun 2026, 03:15 · mainstream media

Geographic Zone Matches

14 active matches

  • Oman (12nm coastal buffer)
    Rule-basedConfidence 100%
  • OFAC Sanctioned Countries
    Rule-basedConfidence 100%
  • United Arab Emirates (12nm coastal buffer)
    Rule-basedConfidence 100%
  • TRIA Certified Areas
    Rule-basedConfidence 100%
  • JWC Listed Areas
    Rule-basedConfidence 100%
  • Kuwait (12nm coastal buffer)
    Rule-basedConfidence 100%
  • EU Sanctions List
    Rule-basedConfidence 100%
  • Iran (12nm coastal buffer)
    Rule-basedConfidence 100%
  • Saudi Arabia (12nm coastal buffer)
    Rule-basedConfidence 100%
  • Bahrain (12nm coastal buffer)
    Rule-basedConfidence 100%
  • Qatar (12nm coastal buffer)
    Rule-basedConfidence 100%
  • Pacific Ring of Fire
    Rule-basedConfidence 100%
  • Persian/Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Indian Ocean, Gulf of Aden and Southern Red Sea
    Rule-basedConfidence 100%
  • Caribbean Hurricane Zone
    Rule-basedConfidence 100%

Geographic zone matches are RiskEvents spatial/analytical indicators, not coverage determinations or Lloyd's official classifications.

Affected countries

🇮🇳 India🇮🇷 Iran🇺🇸 United States🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates🇴🇲 Oman🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia🇧🇭 Bahrain🇶🇦 Qatar

+3 more

Latest developments

  • IRGC declares Strait of Hormuz closed to all vessel traffic following US strikes on Iran. balkanweb.com
  • Reporting attributes the closure to a direct response to US strikes on Iran. balkanweb.com
  • One report carries a reported IRGC threat to fire on transiting vessels (single-sourced). indiatimes.com
  • One report carries a claimed second Iranian strike on the US Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain (single-sourced). indiatimes.com
  • One report records a >2% intraday jump in crude oil prices tied to the closure announcement. indiatimes.com
  • Reporting identifies the Strait of Hormuz as a critical chokepoint carrying roughly 20% of global oil and major LNG flows. indiatimes.com
  • Duration of the closure has not been confirmed. indiatimes.com
  • Enforcement scope and any naval contestation have not been confirmed. indiatimes.com

Timeline

Corroboration17 Jun 2026, 10:58

Reports indicate a US military strike on Iran has prompted Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil and LNG shipments. Closure of this waterway would have immediate and severe implications for energy supply chains, marine cargo and hull war risk, and political risk/trade disruption lines. This represents a major escalation with direct insured-asset and pricing implications across multiple London Market books.

Source: balkanweb.com (Mainstream Media) · View source

Status Change17 Jun 2026, 04:30

Status changed to monitoring

Auto-transitioned: no updates for 6 hours

active -> monitoring

Intelligence Refresh17 Jun 2026, 00:03
Status Change16 Jun 2026, 18:19

Status changed to active

evidence_trigger: developing_promotion

developing -> active

Corroboration16 Jun 2026, 18:19

Iran has launched attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait and closed the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping following fresh US military strikes. The closure of this critical chokepoint through which approximately 20% of global oil flows represents an extreme marine and energy market event with global supply chain implications.

Source: aljazeera.com (Mainstream Media) · View source

Status Change16 Jun 2026, 13:47

Status changed to developing

evidence_trigger: corroboration >= 2

signal -> developing

Corroboration16 Jun 2026, 13:47

Iran's military command declared the Strait of Hormuz 'completely closed to all types of vessel' and threatened to target any ship attempting transit, following fresh US airstrikes on Iran. The Iranian navy reported striking two vessels attempting to pass through the strait. This represents a critical escalation affecting one of the world's most vital oil shipping chokepoints, with direct implications for marine hull, marine cargo, war risk, energy, and trade disruption lines of business.

Source: France 24 English (Mainstream Media) · View source

Intelligence Refresh16 Jun 2026, 13:08
Initial Detection16 Jun 2026, 13:03

Initial Detection

Iran's IRGC has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels in retaliation for US military strikes. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical oil transit chokepoint, handling approximately 20% of global oil supply. This closure represents an existential threat to global energy supply chains, marine war risk pricing, and reinsurance treaty assumptions for the Persian Gulf.

Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz to All Vessels After US Strikes

Source: newkerala.com (Mainstream Media) · View source

Lloyd's classifications

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