Methodology

Source monitoring

RiskEvents monitors a curated set of sources across five classes: official advisories (government agencies, meteorological services), wire services, trade media, mainstream media, and social/community sources. Natural catastrophe data feeds (USGS, NOAA, GDACS, FIRMS, EMSC) are polled at higher frequency for rapid detection.

AI classification pipeline

RiskEvents runs a provider-aware AI pipeline and is not tied to a single AI provider. Incoming source items are triaged for specialty-insurance relevance and market materiality, then structured, matched to existing events or created as new Signal records, reconciled against source-family evidence, and enriched with geographic scope, likely-affected Lloyd's market classifications, macro-event context and, where available, analyst and ground-report layers. Models and prompts are benchmarked, version-controlled, and evaluation-gated before production use. Outputs are tracked for quality monitoring, and structured corrections are recorded when human reviewers modify classifications.

Impact assessment

Potential impact is an estimate of London specialty-market materiality, not a measure of human severity. It considers likely insured-loss relevance, affected classes of business, geographic or asset footprint, source quality, escalation trajectory, and market context.

Impact assessments are initial estimates based on available information at the time of classification. They may change as events develop and more information becomes available.

Event lifecycle

Events progress through a defined lifecycle: Signal (initial detection, limited corroboration), Developing (corroborated but not yet fully confirmed), Active (confirmed and being tracked), Monitoring (no new updates for 6+ hours), Closed (resolved, no new updates for 48+ hours), and Retracted (determined to be incorrect or no longer relevant).

Promotion from Signal to Developing or Active requires corroboration from multiple independent sources and sufficient AI confidence. Events sourced exclusively from social media cannot be auto-promoted and require at least one non-social source.

Corroboration and source families

The platform distinguishes between original reporting and syndicated content. Multiple articles from the same wire service report are grouped into a single source family. The corroborating source count reflects the number of independent source families, not the total number of articles. The publicly displayed report count shows the total number of source items for transparency.

Review status

RiskEvents is primarily an AI-driven platform. Each event displays a review label: “AI Generated” (detected and classified by AI with no human review) or “Human Verified” (confirmed or corrected by a human reviewer). Reviewer identities are not disclosed.

Limitations

RiskEvents is an intelligence tool, not a definitive source of truth. AI classification may contain errors. Impact assessments are indicative, not actuarial. Coverage depends on monitored sources and may miss events reported only in non-English media or niche channels. Users should always verify critical intelligence through independent sources before making underwriting or exposure management decisions.

Questions about our methodology? Contact us.