Iran Missiles Strike Israel; Israel Conducts Strikes Inside Iran Amid Escalation

Impact verdict

Medium impact. Loss pathway: Direct missile strikes and airstrikes between two nations in a region with massive energy infrastructure, shipping lanes (Strait of Hormuz, Persian Gulf), and multiple JWC-listed war risk zones. Evidence: Confirmed missile launches at Israel and Israeli strikes inside Iran with potential for damage to insured energy facilities, commercial property, and military assets. Limit: Specific damage assessments and insured loss estimates are not yet available. War risk premiums, marine war risk, and aviation war risk in the region will be immediately affected. Impact capped at MEDIUM by deterministic London Market impact gate because the source evidences a plausible loss pathway but not a market-moving trigger such as confirmed major insured loss, port/waterway/airspace closure, vessel/aircraft total loss, M7+ urban earthquake, Category 3+ landfall, or market pricing/capacity action.